GDP Growth Projection for Asia, 2018

GDP Growth Projection for Asia, 2018

At the sectoral level, the growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2017-18 for agriculture & allied sectors, industry and services sectors are estimated at 4.5 per cent, 8.8 per cent, and 7.7 per cent respectively. For the full Financial Year 2017-18, gross domestic product (GPD) has grown by 6.7 per cent.

Interim Finance Minister Piyush Goyal has said that, GDP growth has been increasing continuously every quarter with growth of 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017-18.

Separately, infrastructure sector recorded a 4.7 per cent growth in April, as against 2.6 per cent a year ago, data released by government showed.

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India shot past China's 6.8 per cent growth for the January-March quarter. There has been improvement in growth rate in manufacturing and construction.

"Worrying trend is lowest core GVA (gross value added) growth (GVA excluding agriculture and public administration, defense and other services), it grew only 6.5 per cent in FY18 (previous low: 6.6 per cent in 2013-14)".

Real GVA (at basic constant 2011-12 prices for 2017-18) is now estimated at Rs 119.76 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 6.5 per cent over first revised estimates of GVA for 2016-17 of Rs 112.48 lakh crore. Mr Garg said, he does not see oil prices impacting growth and added that fiscal deficit will be within 3.5 percent target. He emphasized that this is the development under leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Minister Arun Jaitley. India's growth performance in the third quarter and fourth quarter implies that these shocks have worn off considerably, stated ANZ.

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"Seems like we have moved beyond the teething troubles related to GST implementation", said Tushar Arora, a senior economist at HDFC Bank.

Economists are predicting a further pick-up in activity during the current financial year on the back of higher consumption demand, a stable GST and a surge in investment towards end of the year. However, we expect tighter financing conditions, rising oil prices and slower investments in the run-up to elections to slow GDP growth later in the year.

The almost $1.7 trillion formal banking sector, which is coping with non-performing assets (NPAs) and emergence of fraud scandals, is worry point in the economy. India meets 80 per cent of its oil needs from imports. However, rising oil prices and depreciating rupee remain key risks to watchout for in the near term.

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GDP growth in 2018-19 could get a boost from prospects of good monsoon, potentially brightening the outlook for agricultural output.

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